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Concerns are rising over a potential trade war, with tariffs on autos looming and geopolitical tensions increasing. Despite market volatility, opportunities exist in diversified investments, particularly in China and Europe, where consumer demand is being prioritized. The focus on sustainability and innovation in technology, especially in green energy, highlights the evolving economic landscape.
On April 2, President Trump is expected to implement significant reciprocal tariffs on 15-25 countries, potentially using Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 or the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. These tariffs may target nations with large trade deficits with the U.S. and high trade barriers, including China, the EU, India, Canada, and Japan. Barclays anticipates that real negotiations will commence post-April 2, warning of prolonged trade tensions ahead.
March inflation figures for the Tokyo area showed a surprising increase, with the core rate rising from 0.8% to 1.1%, leading to an overall inflation rate of 2.9%. This uptick is primarily driven by food prices, with fresh food inflation at 12.9%. Despite the rise, the core rate is expected to remain below 2%, indicating no significant threat to monetary policy. The JPY saw slight stability against the US Dollar, though upcoming US tariffs may influence future movements.
UBS has adopted a selective approach to real estate stocks, favoring those with strong growth potential, pricing power, and solid cash flows. The firm sees opportunities in companies with profitable pipelines and attractive yield gaps, while noting that Japanese developers are performing well, but REITs face challenges from rising interest costs. In Europe, short-term uncertainties persist, yet gradual improvements are expected, particularly in the US and Australian markets, while Hong Kong developers may benefit from stabilizing fundamentals in mainland China.
UBS has adopted a selective approach to real estate stocks, favoring those with strong cash flows, acquisition growth, and profitable project pipelines. While Japanese developers have shown strong performance, REITs face challenges from rising interest costs. In Europe, gradual improvements are expected, particularly in the UK, while the Australian market may benefit from falling funding costs. UBS remains cautious on Singapore and Hong Kong REITs but sees potential gains for Hong Kong developers amid stabilizing fundamentals in mainland China.
Hermès International, a leader in luxury goods, reports that leather goods and saddlery account for 41.3% of sales, followed by clothing and accessories at 28.9%. The company operates 294 stores globally, with significant sales in Asia-Pacific (46.7%) and the Americas (18.6%).
UBS remains bullish on equities, asserting that while a speculative bubble is not dead, conditions for it are present. They predict no long-term recession, citing historical bear markets and targeting modest upside potential for major indices by year-end. Key conditions for a bubble include high P/E ratios and bond yields, which are not currently met.
Japan’s Nikkei average closed at a two-week low, dropping 680 points (1.8%) to 37,120.33, driven by concerns over U.S. tariffs on imported cars and parts. Automakers like Toyota and Honda saw significant declines, contributing to a market value loss of nearly $20 billion in three days. All 33 industry sub-indexes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell, with the brokerage sector experiencing the steepest drop at 4.52%.
Deutsche Bank warns that the Federal Reserve's potential withdrawal of its liquidity backstop could jeopardize the dollar's status as a reserve currency, marking the most significant risk since World War II. Concerns about the reliability of Fed swap lines may prompt global de-dollarization, especially among Western allies, as countries like China and Russia continue to reduce their reliance on the US financial system. The Fed's role as the world's lender of last resort is crucial, and any hesitation to provide liquidity could lead to increased demand for dollars and destabilize US asset markets.
Tesla is less impacted by Trump's new auto tariffs due to its largely domestic production and supply chain, with analysts noting potential benefits in the U.S. market. However, the company faces challenges in Europe and Canada, where reduced incentives and policy headwinds threaten demand. Despite a recent stock increase, Tesla's shares have dropped over 40% since December amid growing criticism and protests against the company.
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optimism and risks in a shifting global economic landscape
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Tesla poised to benefit from Trump's auto tariffs despite global challenges
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17:08 27.03.2025
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